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Why is this Fed Chairman Betting Against Oil?
Wed, 16 Jul 2008 22:48:00 +0000

Experts predict oil will trade for $150.. $175... $200... even $500 a  barrel by December... But one Fed Chairman is betting $509,000 of his own money on plunging oil prices! Insiders and hedge funds are moving into position to profit from an  imminent drop in crude oil prices. Here’s how you can cash in -- legally! -- on insider action!

With oil still around $140 a barrel, some of the world's biggest hedge funds are now quietly betting on a turnaround... by stocking up on beaten-down U.S. refinery stocks.

* Bruce Koyner's $12 billion hedge fund just increased its shareholdings in six refiners, including Valero, Tesoro and Philadelphia-based Sunoco Inc.

* Citadel, a $22 billion hedge fund quietly sequestered an incredible 192,610 shares of Tesoro... and increased its stake in Holly almost eightfold to 190,681 shares in the first three months of 2008.

* Renaissance, a $30 billion fund just bought 609,888 shares of Valero and increased his stake in Calumet by 5.3% to 32,000 shares.

* Leuthold, an investment and research firm that oversees about $5 billion began buying refiner shares in June on speculation oil will drop to about $110 a barrel.

But it's not just hedge funds that are betting top dollar on a turnaround in crude oil prices…

Refinery executives are buying more of their own stock than at any time in the past eight years!

Oil and gas processors have experienced a 40% decline in share prices since January – the largest drop since 1995 – after crude oil prices gained 43%.

That's not surprising when you consider that profits of U.S. refiners plummeted an incredible 98% in the first quarter after companies were unable to make up for higher crude prices with higher gasoline, heating oil and jet fuel prices.

But analysis of the money flow indicates that something's about to change in a big way.

You see, earlier this year, chief executive officers, directors and other senior officials had been dumping shares of oil refineries like there was no tomorrow.

After all, they knew that if oil prices were heading up, their margins would go down.

Suddenly, things have changed: Executives at 10 refiners gobbled up $2 million of their own companies' shares in May... that's twice the amount they sold!

* Tesoro director John Bookout III increased his insider stake by 58%.

* Calumet Specialty Products Partners CEO William Grube bought 50,000 shares in May, his first purchases since the company went public in January 2006, according to the data.

But one company's management has been buying up shares at an unprecedented clip:

* This company’s Executive Chairman of the Board bought 53,000 shares of his company for $727,250... at between $12.43 and $14.74 a share...

* Even better, the refiner's parent company acquired a whopping 880,000 shares for $11.4 million... paying between $12.03 and $14.79 a share

Now... insider buying is typically a good indicator. But betting on lower oil prices alone would not be sufficient for us to recommend this stock... even though right now, you can buy it for under $14.

The thing is, this company's stock price has been depressed artificially since February due to an incident at one of its plants that knocked out part of its capacity.

An estimated 70% of the company’s consolidated EBITDA was produced by this very facility in 2007.

It is now working at 50% of capacity... but the company estimates it will be back online in late July.

There is another catalyst that will propel this company's stock price in the very near future... but more on that in a second.

20 years and counting

Now, I’ve been in this business for a long time – 20 years, in fact – and I’ve seen some rotten market conditions.

(Anyone remember ’91? How about ‘01?)

I’ve carefully researched this market. In fact, in my book Hot Trading Secrets, I predicted a dramatic downturn just like this.

But you know what? It makes no difference whether we’re in an economic downturn... a recession... a depression even.

In today’s global markets, it simply doesn’t matter if markets go up and down. Because there are plenty of ways to make money – regardless!

But before I go on, let me introduce myself.

My name is J. Christoph Amberger. You may already be familiar with my work... I was the Executive Publisher of the financial newsletter Taipan and a good dozen other trading information services... like Cutting Edge... Rogue Trader... WaveStrength....

My approach was and is straightforward: Provide my readers with profitable investment and trading recommendations.

If nothing else, working with literally dozens of famous (and in some cases, infamous) analysts and editors for all those years taught me to tell the real deal from the posers... those with original ideas from the stock pushers and hucksters.

Last year, I decided to build a new kind of information business. I invited the best and brightest members of my team to join me in creating a brand-new electronic financial information resource.

J. Christoph Amberger, Executive Publisher of TodaysFinancialNews.com

We call it TodaysFinancialNews.com

Our task at TFN: To provide you with a reliable, easy-to-use, up-to-date, and focused resource to help you make profits in the stock markets – no matter what. And we do it all in a multi-media format.

We hit the ground running last January:

As Pakistan’s stock market crashed and burned after the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, we quietly recommended our readers pick up some beaten-up Pakistan ADRs.

Our TFN Crisis Trading strategy paid off nicely: Readers who followed our advice could have walked away with gains of 6.6%... 14%... and 17.5% on our easy-to-follow turn-around play... in just 7 weeks!

During 2008’s Winter-into-Spring bloodletting in the markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted as much as -9%. By late May, it had recovered with a maximum upside of only 3.12%. Yet in that same period, our TFN readers got the chance to make…

* 50.1% on Smith & Wesson (SWHC)...
* a minimum of 14.6% on Chinese internet travel portal CTrip.com (CTRP)...
* 40.5% on discount retailer Dollar Tree Inc (DLTR)...
* 55.5% on domestic oil company Rex Energy (REXX)...
* and a whopping 190% gains on our Aug 80 Call option on Boeing (BAHR).

The TFN team’s average gain on our closed positions came in at 55.71%... with an average holding period of just 33 days.

And our closed positions on average beat the Dow by almost 1,700%!

The past’s been great but our future looks outstanding…

Today's Financial News provides an independant and practical perspective on the U.S. and global investment markets. Sign up for our FREE TFN eNews daily email alert HERE. Just enter your email address below.A value is required.Invalid format.

We value your privacy

Digging for treasure, or rather, “DGS Stocks”

Our team has a fitting name for our approach…

We call it DGS Investing.

The concept is simple. There's no "secret backdoor" or "secret currency." No "ancient Egyptian" wealth formulas or other gimmicks that copywriters and marketers make up to sell you.

These are stocks we'd buy ourselves... and have no problem recommending to our relatives and friends. Companies whose insiders are buying... that have easy-to-understand business concepts, established markets, growing revenues and unique products.

We're simply looking for “Damn Good Stocks”.

Right now, there are literally dozens of companies that fit the bill.

Some are making great progress in the fields of biotechnology... genetics... medical diagnostics. Long-term, they will make good investments. But in the meantime, every small breakthrough... every successful step in the approval process... holds the potential for amazing short-term profits.

Our editors sift through hundreds of lesser-known, small- and medium-cap companies in the high-tech, biotechnology, mining, resources, and logistics sectors.

Now, some of these are young companies on the cutting edge of their respective industries. Some have yet to leave their imprint on the markets. Some have fallen out of favor as panicky Wall Street investors heedlessly sold off stocks.

In many instances the daily trading volume of these companies is so light, a single story in the mainstream media... an Internet rumor... a line dropped on a bulletin board… could double or triple their average daily trading activity and push stock prices out of our advisable buying range.

Others have not yet made it onto the screens of mainstream analysts.

Companies like a small biotech firm that specializes in diagnostic products for the world’s aging population. And the company’s scientists have developed a very simple, painless, accurate and cost-effective test that aids doctors in the diagnosis of a debilitating disease that afflicts an estimated 5.1 million folks in the U.S. alone. This includes 4.9 million people age 65 and older.

An independent peer-review study found the level of accuracy to be over 90%!

Most impressive, given the incredible size of the market for the test alone, is that this company's stock is still trading below $5 a share – way below!

You can learn more about this stock in our Special Research Report, 3 Recession-Busting Stocks You Need To Buy Now. I'll tell you more about that in just a moment...

Finding our "damn good stocks" is one thing. Getting the timing just right is quite another...

Actionable profit guidance

To put all this expertise to good use – one that is truly profitable to our readers – we have created a unique new service we call Hot Stock Confidential.

The name says it all…

We monitor the international markets, wade through the molasses of information. Then we apply our DGS criteria to find the absolute BEST picks to send exclusively (and confidentially) to you.

But let's get back to our contrarian oil play...

You remember... the stock that had been beaten down after an "incident" at its most productive facility last February. The stock that the offshore parent company is spending millions of dollars to repurchase at $12... even $14 a share. And whose chairman of the board has been accumulating tens of thousands of shares under the radar.

Now, even this high-level insider activity wouldn't be sufficient to classify this stock as a "GDS"... a "damn good stock".

There is another catalyst that could send the stock price soaring in the very near future.

You see, the company has just completed the acquisition of another facility, which will increase its output by another 50%!

The stock is currently trading at a 73% discount over its July 2007 high. We give it a conservative 67% upside by November.

I have included a detailed briefing on this rebound play, as well, in our Special Research Report, 3 Recession-Busting Stocks You Need To Buy Now.

This report contains concise instructions on how you can use current market conditions to profit from these three Recession-Buster Stocks:

Recession-Buster Stock #1: This tiny biotech holds the secret to crucial early detection of a debilitating disease and could triple investor’s capital.

Recession-Buster Stock #2: Follow the insiders to profits with this battered contrarian energy play that could go up as much as 67% by November.

And we'll also give you the inside track to...

Recession-Buster Stock #3: A small company with key technology set to profit from big demand in China – and possible gains of over 1,000%.

We’ll send you immediate access to this report, free of charge, along with other hot stock recommendations, when you become a Charter Member of Hot Stock Confidential.

How our service works

The instant an opportunity arises, we alert you by special dedicated newsfeed or email. This is the only way we issue our alerts – no snail mail or faxes.

To maximize your potential returns, it’s essential that you’re able to get into a recommendation within our advisable buying range – and get out as soon as we issue a sell alert.

We supplement our alerts with regular updates and strategic adjustments, as well as exclusive special video reports and podcasts that enable you to keep up on your Hot Stock Confidential picks via your email – to your cellphone, Blackberry, or any other digital information medium.

So how much will this service set you back?

I'm not going to lie to you. Being on the cutting edge of information technology is an expensive proposition. And a full staff of top-notch professionals who like to see firsthand what they're recommending certainly runs up the bills like nobody's business.

That's why the normal membership fee to Hot Stock Confidential is $499 a year.

But… Because this is our charter offer, I have radically reduced the membership fee.

Charter Offer: Become a member of Hot Stock Confidential today for only $299 a year and you’ll receive immediate access to a wealth of investment advice including our Special Research Report 3 Recession-Busting Stocks You Need To Buy Now.

$299 – That's a sizeable 40% savings off the regular annual membership.

And as a special introductory bonus…

You’ll also get two more Special Research Reports:

The Top 5 Real Estate Markets of 2008

Using criteria such as local economic stability, colleges in the area, and foreclosure rates, this Report reveals the best real estate investments in today’s market… a $99 value.

Profit From the Aging of America

This Report lists the 3 companies in the best position to capitalize on the inescapable demographic trend... a $99 value.

So here’s the deal (and it IS a deal)…

You’ll receive all 3 Special Research Reports, weekly Hot Stock alerts and portfolio updates, timely buy and sell notifications, TFN eNews emails every Monday through Saturday bringing you the latest market news, and full access to our TodaysFinancialNews.com information portal, complete with Members-only website and forums!

All for just $299 a year – if you accept this offer today!

Heck, you’d typically pay that much for the 3 Research Reports alone!

Of course, it would be unfair to ask you to become a Member sight unseen

But while I have a vested interest in making your Membership in Hot Stock Confidential as enticing as possible, it’s you who will determine if we provide value.

That's why I insist that you try our service absolutely risk-free.

That's right. I will give you a full 45 days to put us to the test.

That translates into an absolute minimum of 6 free trading recommendations... on top of those we make available to you in our Special Research Reports.

Should you decide that Hot Stock Confidential is not for you during that period, all you have to do is let us know. We’ll be happy to surrender your spot to someone else... and reimburse every nickel of your membership fee. No questions asked!

The way I see it, you have absolutely nothing to lose.

So if you think you're ready become a member of the TFN profit network, get started by selecting the "Activate my Membership" button below.

Activate my Membership

Best regards,

J. Christoph Amberger

J. Christoph Amberger
Executive Publisher
July 2008

P.S. There will be thousands of opportunities in the next three years, just in the biomedical field alone, as products work their way through the five stages of the FDA Approval Process. Submit your Charter Membership Application for the Hot Stock Confidential introductory rate of $299 today and get started on the road to gains with the Report 3 Recession-Busting Stocks You Need To Buy Now. It's yours FREE – along with the other two Special Research Reports: Profit From the Aging of America and The Top 5 Real Estate Markets of 2008.

P.P.S. I frequently get asked if the Membership fee for Hot Stock Confidential is tax deductible. There is indeed a very good chance that this is the case, but every situation is different. Check with your accountant before you take advantage of this special “bonus loophole!”